Results tagged “polling” from ElectionObsession
Most polls talk about the difference, but I'm finding increasing relevance in the top line. Nearly 2 weeks ago, I pointed out that Obama was maintaining his top line in the polls at about 45-47 percent. Looking at the most recent polling after the Democratic convention, Obama seems to have edged that range up to 48-49 percent.
I think that, barring another Palin-related game changer, those 1-2 points are likely to stick. McCain's top line is all over the place in these polls - CBS has it at 40, and Rasmussen has it at 48 (with Obama at 49). This is just a guess, but look for Obama's lead to be about 1-2 points higher throughout September than it was in August.
Mark Penn is out with a "The GOP better have a good convention, or they're in deep trouble" piece today. It contains this very intelligent analysis:
The national momentum of these conventions and the national polls is critical to who wins and who loses. We don’t live in isolated media markets, but in an increasingly connected and interactive national community, and presidential campaigns are largely driven by the earned media, with paid ads playing only a secondary role. While Election Night could come down to few thousand voters in a key swing state, the voters in that state will have been equally affected by what goes on nationally as by what happened in their state and in their state’s campaign. That’s why national momentum and national polls count, and Obama has them now.
I'm tired of hearing some people wax about how national polls don't matter. They do.
The question: Have the winds started blowing permanently in McCain's favor until the election?
The answer: No, it won't go unchanged until November. But what I find really shocking is the complete air of confidence coming from the Obama camp - they are not punching back in any coordinated fashion. Further complicating the matter is the fact that, since the conventions are back-to-back, it's likely that polling after the GOP convention will reflect a modest but real bounce for McCain.
The real question about this Reuters poll is - is it an outlier? Obama has consistently polled between 45-47% in the vast majority of polls. Even the Battleground poll that came out today, showing McCain with a 1-point lead, puts Obama at 46%. If other polls start to show him at 41%, that means that his own support is ebbing, rather than McCain winning short-term battles for the preference of wavering undecideds. And if that turns out to be the case, Mr. Obama is in serious, serious trouble. We can go into election day with Obama at 46-47% and hoping undecideds break his way - that's a plausible scenario. We cannot go into election day with Obama polling at 41% and have any reasonable hope he'll win.
