Results tagged “Obama” from ElectionObsession
The National Review's David Frum is one of the few righties taking a sober approach to the GOP's nomination of Sarah Palin for Vice President. He frets — and with good reason — over the notion of such a foreign policy ingenue having to step in as President.
Last night, Frum highlighted an e-mail from an independent that bodes poorly for the McCain-Palin ticket:
I started the cycle with the idea that if I could at all find a palatable Democrat, I’d vote for him. (Not her, because not a fan of Hillary). I also hoped that the Republicans would nominate McCain because he had an image that was distinct from the Republican party that I felt duty-bound to reject. … What I want to report to you, though, is the deep disappointment I’ve had in McCain. I had thought that this was going to be the happy year where either outcome was pretty good. I no longer feel that way. ... Not only was this choice [of Sarah Palin] irresponsible, I suspect it is also politically tone deaf. Obama’s campaign has been premised on an appeal to voters exactly like me – voters who want a politics that does not so obviously delight in wallowing in the mud. If there are a lot of Independents like me, Palin is a disaster. She’s just performed what it is that is driving us from the Republicans. She’s running against hope and the notion that we need civility in our political life. She’s running against the notion that we ought to hold our fellow Americans in respect whether they come from small towns or big towns.
We will see how this plays out. Pro-life though I am; appalled by the social liberalism of the Democrats as I am; I really, really, really don’t want to live in an America that is capable of preferring that kind of ugly divisiveness to a genuine engagement with the serious issues that confront us all. This is not the time for spitball. It is the time for serious leadership. ... I want to come home to the Republicans. Right now I expect that it’ll be a good long while before that’s possible.
Somebody clearly trained Sarah Palin to stop saying nook-ya-ler since Friday.
The tone of the coverage about her has changed overnight since her speech - even on the BBC this morning, I'd say there's about 90% less skepticism about her candidacy. And as for any illusions about Palin dropping out, I'd say you can kiss them goodbye. She's not going anywhere. Most of the lefty coverage focuses on the GOP giving up on issues altogether and turning this into 2004 again. It may work, and it may not, but barring some kind of smoking gun evidence that she committed a crime or had an abortion, McCain is going to stick with her. And why shouldn't he? She might be his most formidable weapon. McCain's threshold for VP has changed from "ready to be President on day one" to "ready to be attack dog on day one." Maybe he's a more astute evaluator of political talent than anybody gave him credit for.
They've basically dared the media to bring it on and try to find something disqualifying about her. And they've clearly made the calculation that nothing that's emerged thus far is disqualifying, at least to the extent that they'd be willing to take the hit of her withdrawal. I doubt anything disqualifying will emerge.
We're going to be seeing a lot of what we saw last night over the next 2 months. "Community organizer" is the new black. They'll run against Obama as if he's a lightweight, and they'll run against Bush as if he were a Democrat for the last 8 years. And make no mistake about it: Palin is precisely the right candidate to help him run that race.
I'll reiterate the Tracey Flick thing - I couldn't stop thinking about it throughout her entire speech. She's fueled by ambition, she's Machiavellian - she even has the same accent and verbal/facial tic.
Even if the Republicans don't win this election, Democrats have much to fear from Mrs. Palin in the future.
Most polls talk about the difference, but I'm finding increasing relevance in the top line. Nearly 2 weeks ago, I pointed out that Obama was maintaining his top line in the polls at about 45-47 percent. Looking at the most recent polling after the Democratic convention, Obama seems to have edged that range up to 48-49 percent.
I think that, barring another Palin-related game changer, those 1-2 points are likely to stick. McCain's top line is all over the place in these polls - CBS has it at 40, and Rasmussen has it at 48 (with Obama at 49). This is just a guess, but look for Obama's lead to be about 1-2 points higher throughout September than it was in August.
Mark Penn is out with a "The GOP better have a good convention, or they're in deep trouble" piece today. It contains this very intelligent analysis:
The national momentum of these conventions and the national polls is critical to who wins and who loses. We don’t live in isolated media markets, but in an increasingly connected and interactive national community, and presidential campaigns are largely driven by the earned media, with paid ads playing only a secondary role. While Election Night could come down to few thousand voters in a key swing state, the voters in that state will have been equally affected by what goes on nationally as by what happened in their state and in their state’s campaign. That’s why national momentum and national polls count, and Obama has them now.
I'm tired of hearing some people wax about how national polls don't matter. They do.
I've not commented on the Biden choice because, frankly, I'm not sure yet what I think. I'm waiting for his speech tonight.
My current feeling is that I'm not so sure a 65-year-old white guy with 36 years in the Senate is the guy you want to reinforce your message of "Change you can believe in." And if that's no longer the Obama-Biden campaign's message, what is?
Attack dogs are fine and good, but a running mate can't attack alone. I believe they have to fit in to the greater context of the campaign, and I, at this point, don't see how he does.
Hillary's speech last night was convincing, in that it gave disaffected HRC supporters a compelling, point-by-point list of reasons why they ought to be voting for Obama. "Were you in this campaign just for me?" she asked of her supporters, the audience for the speech. And now we should safely be able to say that any Hillary supporter planning to pull the lever for McCain is deluded (or simply won't vote for the black guy).
Somewhere around March 4th of this year, I started to feel a visceral hatred for all things Clinton. Hillary overstayed her welcome during the primary campaign, there is no question. But here we are, in the waning hours before Obama's veep choice, and deep inside, I'm rooting for him to pick Hillary.
Why? Nate Silver says it best.
Just wanted to go on the record before he sends out his text to the masses.
The question: Have the winds started blowing permanently in McCain's favor until the election?
The answer: No, it won't go unchanged until November. But what I find really shocking is the complete air of confidence coming from the Obama camp - they are not punching back in any coordinated fashion. Further complicating the matter is the fact that, since the conventions are back-to-back, it's likely that polling after the GOP convention will reflect a modest but real bounce for McCain.
The real question about this Reuters poll is - is it an outlier? Obama has consistently polled between 45-47% in the vast majority of polls. Even the Battleground poll that came out today, showing McCain with a 1-point lead, puts Obama at 46%. If other polls start to show him at 41%, that means that his own support is ebbing, rather than McCain winning short-term battles for the preference of wavering undecideds. And if that turns out to be the case, Mr. Obama is in serious, serious trouble. We can go into election day with Obama at 46-47% and hoping undecideds break his way - that's a plausible scenario. We cannot go into election day with Obama polling at 41% and have any reasonable hope he'll win.
Saddleback was only a mistake if Obama's goal was to "win". If his goal was to scrape somewhere between 1-5% off the top of the evangelical vote, he may well have succeeded. Any votes he picked up from Saddleback were like finding a $100 bill lying in the street - you never expected to have the money, you wouldn't get it any other way, but it's sure nice to have found it.
